I caught only bits and pieces of Christine Ford’s statement, and have seen a few of the commentary on it. I saw Judge Kavanaugh’s opening statement and parts of the questioning, consisting of Lindsay Graham’s impressive denunciation of the Democrats. That sufficed, I believe, to make an informed guess as to the hearing’s consequences.The agreement of the commentariat is that Ford was “reliable.”That isn’t unexpected. Many witnesses are trustworthy under friendly questioning, direct examination in a trial context. It generally takes interrogation to expose a witness’s weaknesses. Today, the Republicans decided for political factors not to go after Ford, which may well have actually been a great decision. It virtually assured that she would be pronounced “reliable.”
The more crucial question is whether her story is reputable. To anyone who has paid attention, it isn’t. She can not render a coherent account of the occasions that comprise her testament. Essential, each of individuals she identifies as existing refutes her claims. And Ford’s position on some matters is indefensible; e.g., her claim not to know who spent for her polygraph exam (does she know who is paying her legal representatives?), her alleged worry of flying, and so on.Brett Kavanaugh was likewise trustworthy. His anger was certainly real, and his lengthy reminder of his long and respectable profession was, I believed, persuasive. The Democrats had nothing on him; their harping on his high school yearbook was pathetic, and Amy Klobuchar’s attempt to insinuate that Kavanaugh has a drinking problem was remiss. Graham’s denunciation of the Democrats– it was bracing to hear so much reality in a single dose– will resound for some time.So who won the day? I think it is necessary to remember the audiences for whom today’s efficiency was enacted. There were 2. The first is the public, or that part of it that watched some of the hearing or will check out and hear about it. The Democrats appear to believe that”believe women”is a majority belief– regardless, obviously, of what the female states, and subject to such exceptions as might be hassle-free. I doubt that is right. I think an excellent lots of Americans have actually had it with #MeToo and associated abuses and can have compassion with a wrongly implicated public figure. We might or may not ever understand who won the public battle.The 2nd and more crucial audience for today’s hearing was Republican senators who might perhaps vote No on Kavanaugh’s nomination.
(The Democratic senators are irrelevant; nothing that occurred today could impact their votes, and they are a minority.)Traditional wisdom states there are 4 possible No votes amongst GOP senators: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Bob Corker and Jeff Flake. Nobody who means to run once again as a Republican politician can vote No; I believe Collins and Murkowski are both in that classification. That leaves the 2 retiring senators, Corker and Flake. At one point, Corker voiced doubt about voting to validate in the wake of Ford’s accusation. However I don’t think he is a turncoat, and Kavanaugh gave him and any other wavering senators plenty of reason for voting Yes. That leaves Flake, who has actually ended up being consumed by Trump hatred and could vote No as a last spiteful act on his way out the door. I hope he won’t do that, and he was an authentic conservative at one time, so he may in fact appreciate the Court. In any event, the Republicans can stand up to one defection.So I believe Kavanaugh will be confirmed. Will the Democrats be disappointed? It is hard to say. If Kavanaugh isn’t confirmed, the next Justice will be the younger and more conservative Amy Barrett. The reality is that Kavanaugh is as moderate a nominee as the Democrats are visiting. They might be content with the enjoyment of slandering an innocent man, the damage they have done to the Supreme Court as an institution, the fundraising they are feverishly doing at this moment, and another fake concern to fire up their low-information base in November. The damage they are doing to our republic? They don’t care.UPDATE: Minutes earlier, it was reported that Corker says he will vote Yes, while Flake declined to dedicate, saying it is a”tough call.” Share